First, the short-term decline in sales is a foregone conclusion, and the Spring Festival factor exacerbates seasonal fluctuations.
The explosive growth in new energy heavy truck sales in 2025 was partly due to the "advance against future depreciation" effect, as and users rushed to purchase before the subsidy ramp-down in 2026. This effect will be transmitted to the fuel heavy truck market, combined with the reduction in working caused by the Spring Festival holiday in February 2026, fuel heavy truck sales in the first quarter are expected to decline year-on-year.
Second, policy continuity provides a "safety cushion", naturally replacing support for basic demand.
Although large subsidies at the central level have been phased out, there is still room for marginal elasticity in the national IV trade-in policy, and governments are likely to continue related subsidy policies in order to stabilize employment and logistics markets, with a high probability that the subsidy amount will not be reduced. This policy will effectively avoid a-like decline in the sales of fuel heavy trucks.
At the same time, national V models have become the main force of the current heavy truck inventory, and will enter peak period of scrapping in 2026.
Third, exports and niche markets become "breakthrough points", and the advantages of leading enterprises continue to expand.
While the domestic market is under pressure, exports will become an important growth pole for fuel heavy trucks. With the advantages of complete supply chain and high performance, China's heavy trucks have continuously increased their market share in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa, and the export of heavy trucks is expected to increase to 30,000 units in 2026, among which fuel models are still the main force of exports.
In terms of subdivided markets, engineering heavy trucks will benefit from the continuous increase in infrastructure investment. Major projects such as the new land-sea channel in the western region and urban agglomeration construction during the "4th Five-Year Plan" period will drive the demand for dump trucks and special-purpose trucks, while logistics fuel heavy trucks need to focus on long-distance main lines and road conditions in the face of the pressure of new energy substitution.
In terms of market pattern, leading enterprises such as FAW Jiefang and Dongfeng will further the market share of small and medium brands with the layout of overseas channels and technological advantages, and the concentration of the fuel heavy truck market is expected to break through 95.
